Ever since striking it lucky on a 50-1 bet backing Christine Ohuruogu to win the 2007 world 400m title (and subsequently winning a few bob at recent championships), after each championships my friends and family tend to say to me: “you should have given me some tips!” So the purpose of this blog post is to share some advice on athletes I think are good value to back for a medal at this week’s European Championships in Barcelona.
Truth be told, I have had a fair few losses (although the bookies didn’t learn their lesson with Ohuruogu and I enjoyed a similar healthy payback when she won gold in Beijing in 2008). I am not perfect and sport is unpredictable. The very nature of betting means that it is always tricky to make a decent return, and I will not accept any responsibility for any losses you may make on the back of my advice. But should you make any profit, by all means feel free to send me a 10% commission 🙂
With rank outsiders, it’s usually best to back them alone. But if you’re confident that a handful of favourites are almost certs to win, then stick them in an accumulator, mix them up a bit and see what happens. Websites like Odds Checker allow you to compare the odds on events across a range of bookies (and if you’re new to it, be sure to take advantage of the free bet offers for new registrations).
So, without any further ado, here are some events that might be worth betting on.
Women’s 100m
This is a classic example where bookies simply glance at ranking lists and pick out the favourites from there. But the ranking lists in this event do not tell the whole picture. Alena Neumiarzhytskaya supposedly leads the European rankings with a 11.05 clocking in her home country of Belarus. But outside of that competition, she has been nowhere near that form, following it up with a 11.74 in Barcelona. Some may argue she could be the next Yuliya Nesterenko (2004 Olympic 100m champion from the same country), but Nesterenko was at least able to replicate her form on the circuit and had some good victories against quality opposition. Neumiarzhytskaya simply competed in one extremely dodgy race.
As much as I would love Laura Turner to win gold for Britain, her 11.11 (for second place in the European rankings) was set at altitude with maximum wind. So the next likely candidate appears to be Veronique Mang of France. She set a PB of 11.20 in almost still conditions and backed it up with a few more 11.2 clockings. She also won the European Team Championships 100m, so has already proved herself against the best in Europe.
Some betting sites have Mang down as just the third favourite with odds as good as 9/2. Her odds are shortening though, so get in there quick.
Men’s 200m
Christophe Lemaitre tops the European rankings in this event, but he will be doubling up in the 100m. The 200m final will potentially be his sixth race in four days, so the big question is will he be able to bring his best form (20.16) to the final, or will he be tired?
Personally, I think Norway’s Jaysuma Saidy Ndure could be the one to back here. He is doubling up too (so may also be tired), and can be inconsistent. But the plus side of inconsistency is that he could be having a good day – like the time he ran his surprise 19.89 in Stuttgart three years ago.
He has not since matched that form, but this season I have seen flashes of brilliance from Ndure (a windy 9.98 in Doha, his 20.31 into the wind in Gateshead, finishing a whisker behind Walter Dix and Wallace Spearmon, guys who have dipped well below 20 seconds this season) that tell me he could just return to his best. And at 4/1 he is worth a few quid.
Women’s hammer
It looks as though the bookies are backing Anita Włodarczyk, which on the surface seems fair enough. She is, after all, the world champion and improved her own world record to 78.30m earlier this year. But perhaps the bookies are not aware that Włodarczyk has been injured, to the extent that her participation in Barcelona has been in doubt.
She may well be able to get one big throw out there and it could be enough to win gold. But if you’re after a safer bet, then look elsewhere. Former world record-holder Tatyana Lysenko is next in the rankings, but she is nowhere near as consistent as she used to be. And she is a drug cheat, so I’d rather she didn’t win.
So the best option here may be the uber-consistent Betty Heidler. She has several 75m+ throws to her name this year and threw a season’s best of 75.82m in her last competition before Barcelona, so could be coming into form at the right time. Some bookies are currently offering odds of 11/2 for her.
Men’s discus
Another event where windy conditions skew the rankings. Gerd Kanter is a renowned wind-hunter and tops the world rankings with 71.45m. But take away his marks set at wind farms in the furthest corners of the USA, and the Estonian’s best is 68.76m, which immediately puts him on a par with the other leading contenders. He is no longer the athlete he was a year or so ago when he notched up a 28-competition winning streak, but similarly he has medalled at the past five major championships, so can never be completely discounted.
If I had to pick a winner, though, I’d look no further than last year’s gold and silver medallists from the World Champs. Robert Harting (currently 7/2) has this year produced two of his best ever three throws so is clearly in good form. Piotr Malachowski (15/8) meanwhile recently set a national record of 69.83m in Gateshead and is a good championship thrower.
Women’s 400m hurdles
This is shaping up to be one of the most competitive events of the championships. There are six or seven athletes who have a genuine chance of winning gold. Because it is so competitive, even the favourite’s odds can be decent value.
Russia’s Natalya Antyukh is currently the favourite at 15/8. The likes of Zuzana Hejnova and Angela Morosanu have SBs just a fraction behind Antyukh, which perhaps makes the event appear more competitive than it actually is. But in terms of head-to-heads, Antyukh has not been beaten by any European athletes this year. Plus, she is known for bringing her best to championships, so will likely run faster than her 54.00 season’s best.
Her odds might not be tempting enough to back her alone, but if you’re looking for an event favourite to mix in an accumulator, then Antyukh is a great one for this.
Men’s 5000m
I would love for Mo Farah to win the 10,000m and return later in the week to take the 5000m title too. His best chance of doing the latter would be to take it out hard, stick to Alemayehu Bezabeh (the only other guy capable of near-13:00 pace) and try out-kicking him at the end.
But as this will potentially be Farah’s third race of the week, he will likely be too tired to run at near-PB pace meaning the 5000m will become a kicker’s race. On the European scene, the Spaniard distance runners are known for being the best kickers, so perhaps defending champion Jesús España could be the guy to back here. He recently won the Spanish title, beating all of his kick-finishing compatriots. With current odds of 4/1 he is only the third favourite, but España is better than that.
Women’s 1500m
I have not yet seen any odds for this event, but if I had any advice it would be to back Natalia Rodriguez. The Spaniard crossed the line in pole position at last year’s World Championships, but was later disqualified for pushing another athlete. She bounced back earlier this year to take World Indoor silver, proving that she is still a danger.
Her season’s best (4:06.7) ranks her outside the top 40 in the world this year, but don’t be fooled as she is undefeated on the European level this year. Rodriguez may not run fast times in pace-made races like this year’s top three in Europe (Anna Alminova, Hind Dehiba and Lisa Dobriskey), but she is at her best in tactical races with a last-lap burn up – which is exactly what most championship races are like. And never underestimate the benefit of home-crowd support.
This could be one of the highest-quality events of the week, but when odds do appear for the 1500m, if Rodriguez is listed as being anything other than the favourite, then she is worth backing.
